"This year's auto industry growth rate is definitely lower than GDP growth, which is a rare situation in many years. In the past ten years, only in 2008 when the global financial crisis occurred did the auto industry growth rate fall below GDP growth rate, while in other years it was higher than GDP." On August 16, in an office building located in the northeast corner of Beijing Muxidi Bridge, Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Development Department of the National Information Center, accepted an exclusive interview with our reporter and made the above judgment on this year's auto industry growth rate.
　　Xu Changming predicts that the growth rate of commercial vehicles in the second half of this year will be slightly better than that in the first half of the year, but will still show negative growth; the growth rate of passenger vehicles will become slower and slower, maintaining at 3% to 4%, and will not reach 5%. He believes that the impact of macroeconomic regulation on the auto market will become greater and greater, and hopes that the country will create a gradual competitive environment for independent brands, and that policies will not be hot and cold.
　　This year's auto market growth rate is lower than GDP, which is an abnormal phenomenon .
　　When talking about the relationship between the growth rate of the auto industry and GDP growth, Xu Changming said that there is a certain correlation between the two. At the current stage, when China's automobile industry enters its second period of rapid growth, the sales growth rate of passenger cars should be roughly equivalent to 1.5 times of GDP; the growth rate of commercial vehicles has been 1.3-1.4 times of GDP in the past few years, and will be 1 times in the next ten years, which is equal to the growth rate of GDP. "At present, commercial vehicles account for one-third of the total number of vehicles, and passenger vehicles account for two-thirds of the total number of vehicles. The combined growth rate of the two should be slightly higher than the GDP growth rate, so this year's speed is definitely abnormal and lower than normal years." Xu Changming told reporters.
　　Why is it abnormal? Xu Changming said that the growth rate of the automobile industry is centered on the long-term potential growth rate, and fluctuates with the growth of GDP. The fluctuation range is small; if it is affected by external policies at the same time, its fluctuation will become larger. "The growth rate of passenger cars is relatively more closely related to the growth rate of GDP, because there are few national stimulus policies like the year before last. Commercial vehicles are more affected by policy stimulus, and the withdrawal of a policy will be a big deal." In order to explain the sluggish auto market more clearly and clearly, Xu Changming analyzed the "three stages" of the decline in the growth rate of the automobile industry since this year.
　　The first stage is the decline of the growth rate of the automobile industry from 37% to about 18%. The reason for the decline is the collective withdrawal of the stimulus policies that have been implemented for more than two years. "The growth rate in the first two years was too fast. Last year, the GDP growth rate was 11%, and the growth rate of the automobile industry was more than 30%, about three times the GDP growth rate. This is the high growth brought about by a series of stimulus policies adopted by the state for the automobile industry last year and the year before. This year, these policies have been collectively withdrawn, pulling the market back to the potential growth level. We estimate that this potential growth rate should be around 18%."
　　The second stage is the decline of the growth rate of the automobile industry from the potential growth rate of 18% to 12% in the first quarter. Xu Changming analyzed: "The main reason for this 6 percentage point decline is Beijing's purchase restriction policy and rising oil prices. Beijing's purchase restriction has a great impact, causing the sales growth rate of the national automobile market to drop by 4 to 5 percentage points; and this impact will expand to the whole country. Beijing's automobile consumption atmosphere has a great impact on the whole country. When Beijing's automobile consumption is hot, the whole country will follow suit. When Beijing's consumption is slack, the whole country will follow suit."
　　The third stage is the decline from 12% in the first quarter to 3% in the second quarter. "This 8-9 percentage point decline is mainly due to the country's continuous macroeconomic regulation. The money supply has been tightening, funds are becoming increasingly tight, and the impact of the Japanese earthquake has led to the lowest growth rate in the auto market in recent years," Xu Changming explained. The
　　impact of macroeconomic regulation on the auto market will become greater and greater
　　"The impact of macroeconomic regulation on the auto market is increasing, and this factor will have an increasing impact in the future," Xu Changming told reporters. Xu
　　Changming analyzed that the macroeconomic regulation in the first half of the year was a practice of "continuously tightening money supply, raising the deposit reserve ratio once a month, raising interest rates once every two months, and tightening more and more," while the second half of the year may be a little different. "The policy has now entered an observation period. It is generally believed that July and August are the highest points of prices each year. Even if no policy measures are taken, prices will go down in the next few months. If this is the case, the direction of regulation will still be a tight monetary policy, but the intensity will remain the same as in the first half of the year and will not become tighter and tighter."
　　According to the second quarter China Monetary Policy Implementation Report released by the central bank on August 12, the current pressure of price increases is still relatively large, and it is necessary to continue to maintain the necessary regulatory strength; in the next stage, the central bank will continue to implement a sound monetary policy, adhere to the basic orientation of regulation, and continue to stabilize the overall price level as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation.
　　"Even if the status quo is maintained, the negative impact of macroeconomic regulation on the auto market will become greater and greater, and more and more small and medium-sized enterprises will not be able to hold on. Because the cost of obtaining funds is getting higher and higher, and the difficulty is getting higher and higher, the more companies will not be able to hold on." Xu Changming analyzed that from the data of the auto market, small and medium-sized enterprises accounted for more than 90% of the total number of corporate car purchases, and large enterprises accounted for less than 10%. Under the policy of tight money supply, many small and medium-sized enterprises may first choose corporate operations for market reasons, and give up or postpone their car purchase plans.
　　If the threshold of energy-saving subsidies is raised by 3,000 yuan, the auto market will suffer a fatal blow
　　. Recently, there is news that the threshold of China's 3,000 yuan energy-saving and people-friendly car subsidies will be raised, and the stipulated average fuel consumption per 100 kilometers will be reduced from 6.9 liters to 6.2 liters. If this standard is implemented, nearly 70% of the more than 400 models currently enjoying subsidies will be eliminated.
　　"If this policy to raise the subsidy threshold is really implemented, it will be a fatal blow to the auto market." Xu Changming analyzed that this fatal blow is reflected in two aspects.
　　"The first is a fatal impact on the growth rate of the auto industry. Now it is a positive growth of 3% to 4%. If this policy is really implemented, it may become a negative growth of 3% to 4%. "Xu Changming told reporters that the proportion of passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters and below in the total number of passenger cars was 50% the year before last, and it was as high as 60% after the subsidy policy came out; even if it has declined now, it still accounts for 40% of the total number of passenger cars. If the subsidy threshold is raised, 50,000 fewer cars may be sold per month. Based on the sales of 657,200 passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters and below in July, sales may be reduced by 7% to 8%. In this way, passenger cars will definitely have negative growth throughout the year.
　　Another fatal blow is the blow to domestic brands, because domestic brands account for a large share of passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less. "Last year, the sales volume of domestic brands was 30%, which was a level we achieved after ten years of hard work. This year, it dropped by 5.5 percentage points to 24.5%. With one year's decline, the share of domestic brands has returned to that of ten years ago. Many domestic brands can't make more than 3,000 yuan per car. If the policy raises the threshold again, domestic brands will be hit hard."
　　Domestic brands still need policy support
　　Xu Changming said, "In the future, if the automobile industry wants to continue to contribute to the national economy, it must have domestic brands." For domestic brands to develop, he believes that on the one hand, they must work hard to improve their internal strength, enhance their market competitiveness, and have the "ambition to throw away crutches and walk independently"; on the other hand, they really need the country to create a good competitive environment for them.
　　"We must provide them with some support policies. The intensity may not be large, but we must provide them, because domestic brands are now in an unfair environment." This unfair environment refers to the fact that foreign capital has accounted for 70% of the automobile market, and domestic brands account for 30%. A large number of foreign capital, joint ventures and domestic brands compete in the same environment.
    "With such a large share of foreign capital, it is very difficult to make domestic brands succeed without national policy support. There is no precedent in the world." Xu Changming said, "At the same time, we hope that the competitive environment for domestic brands will be gradual, and the policies should not be hot and cold." Therefore, he called on various occasions to continue the original favorable policies until the end of the year, and not to withdraw all policies at once, because no one can withstand a series of blows.